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conflicting info[edit source]

"The chances of ale maturing depend of the type of ale being brewed rather than the player's Cooking level." "Going mature vs not going mature is completely random in nature, but is aided by Cooking level" --Kmn483 (talk) 21:41, 31 March 2020 (UTC)

Update addition[edit source]

added: Update:Farming 11 July 2005. Fjaratalk 19:09, 15 October 2020 (UTC)

Results of testing[edit source]

Myself and one other editor brewed over 100 brews using the stuff @ 99 cooking and got the following numbers (with included binomial probabilities of obtaining these numbers if the 64% chance of mature, 5% chance of bad are the suggested "known" values): cCAUEcn.png

I believe this shows that the originally believed numbers cannot be correct, and the real chances for mature and bad are actually closer to 36% and 20% respectively. Cerpin Taxt (talk) 11:20, 11 July 2021 (UTC)

I'm interested in knowing what brews were made for the above data. Is it possible that the chance is different for different brews (e.g., Greenman's ale vs Chef's delight)? Ladsquire (talk) 21:06, 17 November 2021 (UTC)
We made a wide range of brews during testing, I personally had a mini-goal of brewing a mature version of each brew for fun. No obvious outliers could be observed for one type versus another. It is worth mentioning though that while the number of brews completed demonstrate the numbers of success overall to a significant degree, if we wanted to assess the mature rate per brew we would need to do a a significant number of each different type of brew- and it was hard enough to get the brews done as it was.
My hope is that at some stage Jagex might reduce the cost of the stuff from the Trouble Brewing shop which would possibly incentivise more brews to be made, but if you would like to do some brewing, more data is always good! Cerpin Taxt (talk) 21:24, 17 November 2021 (UTC)
Did you notice any differences with brews going bad per type? What if the Ash confirmed 64% 'stuff' mature is correct, but you have to pass the 'roll' for bad ale to see if it ends up mature/normal? Entirely plausible the singular variable skilling rate for brews is the chance to go bad. Say the 'bad' rate for the Greenman's Ale personal data below is ~5% at those high level(s), as expected ~60% mature brews appear to have been received instead of 64% (~0.95*0.64). But if bad rates scale up as level reqs and/or benefits from drinking brews increase and are combined with lower rates... Could greatly skew observed mature rates when recording multiple types. Rs statistics (talk) 05:25, 19 January 2022 (UTC)

Dragon bitter(m) deboosts[edit source]

Does a Dragon bitter(m) really deboost your Attack level exactly the same as a Dragon bitter does? All the other mature brews have different deboosts than the non-matured ales. Sedridor (talk) 09:26, 3 December 2021 (UTC)

Yeah, I did pretty thorough testing for everything you can see here User:Fjara/Sandbox2. It uses the top number of the attack level, so if you have enough of them it is possible to confirm on 1 account. Fjaratalk 15:27, 3 December 2021 (UTC)

Personal tests[edit source]

Greenman's Ale

Mature = 100

Normal = 59

Bad = <10

Around 10-15% made from 95-99 Cooking

ElPrimordial (talk) 19:54, 3 January 2022 (UTC)

Axeman's folly

Mature = 76

Normal = 24

Bad = 6 - 8

All made with 99 Cooking ElPrimordial (talk) 20:23, 15 June 2022 (UTC)