Talk:Brimstone key

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Untitled[edit source]

Although Brimstone keys appear on each relevant monster's drop table on the wiki, they have no assigned price, so they are not accounted for when it comes to each monster's Average Drop Value... So would it be appropriate to link the value from the Brimstone chest page to the key's GE price or something, so the average drop value would include it? If not that, at least link the price from the chest to the key's page to make access to its value take one less click.  —The preceding unsigned comment was added by (talk) on 20:12, January 7, 2020 (UTC).

in need of a massive overhaul.[edit source]

I now my numbers aren't much but out of 160 greater demons I got 5 keys. out of the 6 keys I've gotten total the best was 108k and that was literally just coins. the 5 item rewards I've gotten were all well under 40k aside from sharks. my avg from 6 chests is 56k -_- Dragonmist49 (talk) 16:40, 7 July 2022 (UTC)

If you are referring to the average value, a likely explanation is you got unlucky. The median is often noticeably less than mean when it comes to drop tables, and the value is calculated from the latter. --julia talk 16:50, 7 July 2022 (UTC)
I mean fair point but I also got 5 keys in 150 lvl 92 greater demon kills, according to the provided chart there's less than a 1% chance to get keys from greater demons, does my luck with the keys completely negate any luck with the chest? Dragonmist49 (talk) 22:56, 7 July 2022 (UTC)
Getting lucky somewhere will not affect your luck elsewhere. The odds of you pulling a key from a drop do not change, regardless of how many keys you have or have not previously rolled. The average drop value of the chest is an average, and means that over an incredibly long span of time, and with an exceedingly large sample size, your cumulative average drop value will tend towards the extrapolated average drop value. No drop has any bearing on any other individual drop within the sample. There is also never a guarantee that you will pull a key. You could theoretically kill 100,000 demons and never pull a single key. Would the odds suggest this is likely? Absolutely not; but nothing prevents its occurrence. Put another way, despite having only two possibilities on a coin flip, it is possible to flip 'heads' on every trial, despite there always being a 50% chance of seeing 'tails' (see Bernoulli trial).
TL;DR: Humans are TERRIBLE at sensing probability.
Also, your sample size is so small that it is meaningless. Owl (1).pngOwl (t | c) • 00:00, 8 July 2022 (UTC)