Talked to friend who actually tried fossil camp digging... for FOUR hours...
Dug 3000 times (15k mining xp): 320 numulites (320 x 1) and 0 fossils of any kind
Official source comaprison:
According to the above the drop rate for numulites is about 5% (1/17.5 chance of getting either fossil OR numulite)
However, my friend got about a 10.6% drop rate of numulites and 0 fossils when he should have expected SEVENTEEN fossils of some kind.
TLDR: If my friend's numbers are correct then Maz's data is wrong.
That being said, Maz's data seems approximately correct for Sulliusceps and Underwater thieving
Did some fossil island digging and was frustrated that I was not getting any fossils and received 71 numilite. I only did 851 actions before I thought something was wrong. Using a binomial distribution calulator, set to 5% chance, 851 trials, and 71 successes, there is a less than .000001% chance to receive 71 numilite. If I set the chance to 10.6% as Snaad suggested, there is a 98.7% to receive 71 or more numilite. Similarly, if I set the chance to 0.29% as is listed for a small fossil, there should be a 91.5% chance to receive at least one small fossil. For the other fossils and their listed chances, there should be a 69.6% to receive one or more mediums, a 60% chance to receive one or more larges, and a 21.8% chance to recieve one or more rares.
I am almost led to believe they forgot to actually add a drop rate for fossils and only have one for numilite which ended up being about double what was intended.
18.104.22.168 03:38, June 8, 2018 (UTC)Genzel
Also no fossils[edit source]
So I also tried to get some fossils by digging. I did 2000 digs using both trowel and rock pick in the dirt pits around the cleaning tables on fossil island and received 0 fossils of any kind.
Plugging those numbers into a binomial chance calculator using the supplied drop rates, the chance of receiving at least 1 SMALL fossil drop was 99.67%. And that's just for small, I also got no mediums/large fossils that I was also super dry for. Being this dry for all of them is absurdly unlikely.
Seeing the other posts here stating the same thing with an additional 3000 and 851 digs with no fossils, this leads to a binomial chance of occurence of 99.9 with many more 9's (my chance calculator will only display 4), and it's even more when you consider that's just for smalls.
I'm strongly inclined to believe that it is currently not possible to receive fossils this way.